Welcome to Kentucky Oaks Day at Churchill Downs! Today, a filly champion will be crowned.

It's a wet one. The turf course is rated as good and the main track is muddy. As the day goes on, I expect the track to get better as there is no rain in the afternoon forecast.

Many horses that will be running today have never faced off-track conditions and will respond differently. I would expect a few big favorites to fail and a couple horses to crash the board from left field.

A few spot picks for today at Churchill Downs:

Race 6: Edgewood Stakes

Do not over think this: #1 NEWSPAPEROFRECORD is the best filly in the field and should win for fun. She has handled soft turf and won at Churchill before.

Race 7: Alysheba Stakes

#1 McKinzie is the horse to beat in this race. He has given impressive performances in California. #8 Seeking the Soul is the next leading contender and if he bounces back to the form he showed before racing in Dubai, he will contend here. I also like #5 Bourbon Resolution and #10 Silver Dust as value plays.

Race 8: La Troienne Stakes

#3 Divine Miss Gray is my top pick here, she is showing great form and has a great wet track record. #2 Blue Prize is coming off a layoff into a tough spot but I think she is up for the challenge. She has been training well and has competed well in this class of race before. #1 She's a Julie and #9 Secret Spice as also great contenders to win this stakes.

Race 9: Allowance

#1 American Tattoo is my top pick here and he ships in from Argentina and is just fast. Has been training well and should be quickly successful. #7 Solid Wager takes a drop from stakes company to allowance and should do well in this spot. #11 Tiz Mischief is a horse to watch here at a price. He is shortening up and likes Churchill Downs with 1 win and 3 places in 4 career starts.

Race 10: Turf Sprint Stakes

#6 World of Trouble is the class of this race and should be in the winner's circle quickly. He has won 5 of his last 6 with the lone loss by a neck. If he is upset, #8 Undrafted might just be the horse up the task. He won last time out at Churchill Downs on a yielding turf course.

Race 11: Kentucky Oaks

Everything all day points to this race. The main event. #4 Bellafina is the favorite and deservedly so. Shes 3 for 3 this year. If she gets upset, I think there are three likely horses to pull it off. #14 Restless Rider has just missed out on winning her last two, most recently coming off a long break. If she improves now that she has a race under her belt, she is a strong contender to win. #1 Out for a Spin held her off in the Ashland Stakes and has shown improving form over her last three. She certainly can get the job done here. #10 Champagne Anyone has hit the board in her last three stakes efforts winning the most recent, the Gulfstream Park Oaks, watch for her to be contending as well.

Best of luck! And don't forget about the Oaks/Derby Double!